D

Data Analysis and Modeling - Syllabus

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1. Course Description

The emphasis of the course is to apply the python program or any other software to draw inferences from the data so that appropriate decisions can be recommended. This course consists of topics like Correlation, Regression, Time Series Analysis and Forecasting, Linear programming and Network Analysis. After studying these topics, students will be able to understand and analyze relationships between the variables. Linear Programming and Network Analysis will help them to choose the best alternative in order to maximize total profit and minimize total cost in different situations.

2. General Objectives

The general objectives of this course are:

  • To enable the students in calculating and interpretation of the relationship between and among variables using simple correlation and regression analysis.
  • To disseminate students with models for time series and forecasting.
  • To provide students with a sound understanding of index numbers.
  • To equip the students in generating and interpreting statistical finding using the softwares, such as Python,R, Excel or any others
  • To introduce and formulate linear programming.
  • To acquaint the students with the concepts of transpiration and assignment problems.
  • To familiarize the students with network models.

3. Contents in Detail

Specific ObjectivesContents
  • Describe the concept of data analysis and modeling with its usage.
  • Know various visualization graphs
  • Must know data Science workflow

Unit I: Introduction to Data Analysis & Modeling (3hrs)

  1. Data Analysis, Data Modeling, and its importance.
  2. Overview various Visualization graphs (scatter plot, histogram, line graph etc.)
  3. Importance of Data Collection, Data Cleaning, Feature Engineering, Data Filtering, etc.

 

  • Use regression analysis to predict the value of a dependent variable based on an independent variable.
  • Interpret the meaning of regression coefficients.
  • Evaluate the assumptions of regression analysis and know what to do if assumptions are violated.
  • Make inferences about the slope and correlation coefficient.
  • Generate excel output.
  • Use excel output for solving problems.
  • Analyze the relationship between one dependent variable and two or more independent variables and estimate the value of the dependent variable based on the values of the independent variables.
  • Generate the excel output and interpret them

Unit II: Correlation and Regression (9 Hours)

  1. Correlation: Introduction
  2. Types of correlation: Scatter plot and Karlpearsons’ correlation coefficient.
  3. Significance test of correlation coefficient.
  4. Types of regression models
  5. Determining the simple linear regression equation
    1. Visual exploration: exploring simple linear regression coefficients
    2. Predictions in regression analysis: interpolation versus extrapolation
    3. Computing the regression coefficients
  6. Definition and Reasons for using multiple regression equation, Estimating multiple regression equation (2 independent variables)
  7. Error Metrics: R Square, MSE, MAE, etc.
  8. Hypothesis Testing (T-Test for the slope and co-relation coefficient). Confidence Interval estimation of the slope.
  • Describe the various components of time Series.
  • Describe the trend, cyclical, seasonal and irregular components of the time series model.
  • Fit a linear trend equation to a time series.
  • Smooth a time series with the moving average and exponential               smoothing techniques.
  • Forecast the data by various techniques.
  • Calculate and interpret measures of forecast accuracy

Unit III: Time Series Analysis and Forecasting (9 Hours)

  1. Introduction of time series data, Components of time series analysis (Trend, Cyclical, Seasonal, Irregular) 
  2. Trend analysis: Least square method, Second degree equation 
  3. Forecasting Models: Naive, Moving average, Simple exponential smoothing model, linear model. 
  4. Methods of measuring forecasting accuracy: MAD, MAPE, MSE, Cyclical Variation, Business cycle, Percent of trend, Relative cyclical residual, Seasonal Variation, Calculation of seasonal indices (Ratio to moving average), Deseasonalization.
  • Explain the types of index number.
  • Describe notion and terminology of index number.
  • Introduce with the methods of constructing index number.
  • Explain un-weighted and weighted method of index number.
  • Test of consistency of index number.

Unit IV: Index Number (4 hours)

  1. Definition and uses of Index Number
  2. Types of Index Number
  3. Notation and Terminology
  4. Method of constructing Index Number
  5. Un-weighted method
  6. Weighted Method
  7. Cost of living index number
  8. Method of constructing cost of living Index numbers
    1. Aggregative expenditure method
    2. Family budget method
  • Introduce linear programming (LPP).
  • Explain the system of linear inequalities.
  • Formulate LPP Model of the given theoretical problem.
  • Identify the graphical solution of the LP Model.
  • Familiar with the special cases in LP model.

Unit V: Linear Programming Problem (9 Hours)

  1. Introduction, Decision variable, objective function, constraints, slack and surplus variable.
  2. Model formulation for Linear Programming active constraints, inactive constraints, Alternative optimum solution for Linear Programming Problem, Sensitivity Analysis, Primal, Dual Problems.
  3. Applications of Linear Programming
    • Transportation Model
    • Assignment Model
  • Plot the network diagram of the given project.·         
  • Identify critical path, critical and non-critical activities.
  • Identify slack for non-critical activities.
  • Calculate the associated probability.
  • Plot time chart and identify scheduling flexibility.

Unit VI: Network Model (4 Hours)

  1. Introduction, Activities, Events
  2. Basic terminologies under project network
  3. Network Construction (PERT/CPM)
  4. Network Diagram
  5. Probability in PERT Analysis
  • Include one mini project of mentioned dataset with EDA.

Unit VII: Software tools and Data for Visualization (10 hrs)

Iris dataset, Titanic Dataset, California Housing Dataset, Mushroom Datasets, EDA and practical’s. With Python tools such as scikit-learn, seaborn/matplotlib.

Note: The figures in the parentheses indicate the approximate teaching hours for the respective units.

4. Methods of Instruction

The course will be taught by lecture method, group discussion, class work, assignments, project work, case studies. Students will require to utilize computer for computational works.

5. Evaluation System and Students’ Responsibilities

Evaluation System

The performance of a student in a course is evaluated on the basis of internal evaluation and semester-end examination. 50% weight is given to the internal evaluation and 50% weight to the Semester-end examination conducted by the Office of the Controller of Examinations, Pokhara University.

Internal Evaluation

The internal evaluation is based on continuous evaluation process. The internal evaluation components and their respective weights may vary according to the nature and objectives of the course. An evaluation plan should be prepared by the faculty and should share with the students in the beginning of the course.

The internal evaluation components may consist of any combination of written test, quizzes and oral test, workshop, assignments, term paper, project work, case study analysis and discussion, open book test, class participation and any other test deemed to be suitable by the faculty.

Semester End Examination

There will be semester end examination at the end of the semester conducted by the Office of the Controller of Examinations, Pokhara University. It carries 50 % weight of total evaluation.

Students’ Responsibilities

Each student must secure at least 45% marks in the internal evaluation with 80% attendance in the class to appear in the Semester End Examination. Failing to obtain such score will be given NOT QUALIFIED (NQ) and the student will not be eligible to appear in the Semester End Examination. Students are advised to attend all the classes and complete all the assignments within the specified time period. If a student does not attend the class(es), it is his/her sole responsibility to cover the topic(s) taught during the period. If a student fails to attend a formal exam, quiz, test, etc. and there is not any provision for a re-exam.

6. Prescribed Books and References 

Text Books

  1. Levine, D. M., Krehbiel, T. C., Berenson, M. L., & Viswanathan, P. K. Business Statistics: A First Course. New Delhi: Pearson Education.
  2. Eppen, G. D., Gould, F. J., Schmidt, C. P., Schmidt, C., & Schwartz, R. Introductory Management Science. New Jersey: Prentice Hall.

References

  1. Levin, R. I. and Rubin, D. S., Statistics for Management. New Delhi: Prentice Hall
  2. Siegel, A. F. Practical Business Statistics. New York: Andrew F, Irwin.
  3. Anderson, D. R., Sweeney, D.J. and Williams, T. A. Statistics for Business and Economics. New Delhi: Thomson.
  4. Taha,H. M. Operations Research. Collier Macmillan.
  5. Vohra, N. D. Quantitative Techniques in Management. New Delhi: Tata McGraw Hill Education
  6. Levin, R. I., Rubin, D.S. & Stinson, J. P. Quantitative Approaches to Management. New Delhi : McGraw-Hill.